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Spinneys Egypt · Management intelligence
Growth Intelligence 2030
What the evidence supports today: a verified store network, a governed competitive picture and ten screened target markets — with the commercial inputs that a 2030 investment decision still requires stated plainly.
Research phase: CLOSED AT v83COMPLETE AT DECISION-SCREEN LEVELValidated with warnings
SCREENING COMPLETE — INVESTMENT RANKING REQUIRES DEMAND / ECONOMIC INPUTS
Where this stands
- Geo input controlCLOSED
- Competitive screeningCLOSED
- Demand attractivenessDATA GAP
- Site economicsDATA GAP
- 2030 investment roadmapCONDITIONALLY READY
No additional research wave is required to use the workbook for strategic screening.
Approved release
What the evidence shows
Every figure is recalculated from the controlling workbook rows in release v85-r1 and reconciled against the workbook's own summary cells.
Current Spinneys stores
35
Verified11 governorates
Route-ready network
28of 35
Derived5 exact pins pending
Target markets screened
10
Governed40 in-target evidence rows
Map-eligible locations
99
Derived298 records excluded with reasons
Governed competitor points
60
Derived36 brands · 298 evidence rows
Data validation
Validated
Governed110 checks passed · 9 warnings
Completed
What has been completed
The final statement of each research workstream, read verbatim from the approved release.
Geo census / input governance
CLOSED
Verified evidence retained; unresolved exact pins quarantined rather than guessed.
Competitor census / relevance control
CLOSED
Target-specific, corridor and false-positive evidence separated.
Growth intelligence screen
CLOSED
10 target markets have a governed competitive evidence screen.
Public demand overlay
CLOSED TO AVAILABLE AUTHORITATIVE EVIDENCE
Official NUCA/CAPMAS evidence added where it maps defensibly to the target.
Commercial site economics
MANAGEMENT INPUT
Rent, CAPEX, store format, sales forecast and margin are not public facts and are intentionally not fabricated.
2030 decision use
READY FOR DUE-DILIGENCE / MANAGEMENT SCREENING
Workbook can identify where to investigate; investment approval requires the commercial inputs above.
Decision readiness
What can be decided now
The five use-now gates and the open decision areas, read verbatim from the approved release. No completion percentages are invented.
What management can use now
- Ready
Network / competitor analysis
Can use now: YES — Governed evidence exists
- Ready
Competitive pressure screening
Can use now: YES — Wave-C relevance gate complete
- Provisional
White-space hypothesis
Can use now: YES — AS HYPOTHESIS — Needs demand overlay
Screening establishes where to look: 298 evidence rows were triaged into 40 in-target rows; the rest are corridor benchmarks or rejected matches.
What cannot be concluded yet
- Not yet
Investment ranking
Can use now: NO — Demand + economics absent
- Not yet
2030 opening sequence
Can use now: NO — Depends on investment ranking
- DATA GAP
Demand attractiveness
Still required: Population / households / income proxy / retail spend / growth
- DATA GAP
Site economics
Still required: Rent / capex / store format / sales forecast / margin
Competition + public population evidence can prioritize due diligence, but cannot by itself authorize a store opening. Final investment approval requires site economics and commercial demand inputs.
7 of 10 markets have no market-level demand evidence. See the Decision Pathway 2030 for what each market still needs.
Target markets
Screened markets at a glance
Listed in Target_ID order. This table is not a ranking, and the evidence signal is not an attractiveness score.
Competition Signal is a measure of competitor evidence, not investment attractiveness. A higher signal means more competitor evidence was found, not a better opportunity.
| Target | Market | Rows | In-target | Brands | Competitive evidence signal | Evidence quality | Evidence gate | Demand evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGT-001 | 10th of Ramadan | 11 | 7 | 6 | 62.2 | 67.3% | DEEP-DIVE READY | Demand evidence recorded |
| TGT-002 | Taj City / Tajed | 74 | 0 | 19 | 52.7 | 80.5% | NEEDS TARGET-SPECIFIC EVIDENCE | Macro evidence only |
| TGT-003 | Sarai / D2N / Al Amal | 15 | 0 | 10 | 33.8 | 84.0% | NEEDS TARGET-SPECIFIC EVIDENCE | Commercial input required |
| TGT-004 | New Zayed / Belle Vie / Sphinx | 27 | 2 | 13 | 45.7 | 82.2% | DEEP-DIVE READY | Macro evidence only |
| TGT-005 | Mivida / AUC / KOV | 55 | 5 | 19 | 53.8 | 78.9% | DEEP-DIVE READY | Macro evidence only |
| TGT-006 | New Damietta | 3 | 3 | 3 | 64.7 | 60.0% | DEEP-DIVE READY | Demand evidence recorded |
| TGT-007 | Ismailia | 19 | 9 | 6 | 52.1 | 62.1% | DEEP-DIVE READY | Macro evidence only |
| TGT-008 | New Mansoura | 27 | 0 | 10 | 30.2 | 61.5% | NEEDS TARGET-SPECIFIC EVIDENCE | Commercial input required |
| TGT-009 | Suez City | 30 | 14 | 13 | 60.2 | 68.0% | DEEP-DIVE READY | Demand evidence recorded |
| TGT-010 | Badya / New October | 37 | 0 | 15 | 43.1 | 84.9% | NEEDS TARGET-SPECIFIC EVIDENCE | Commercial input required |
No market carries a rank, medal, colour scale or opportunity score. Target-market boundaries do not exist in the approved source, so no market geometry is drawn anywhere in this application.
Trust
How this data behaves
0
Coordinates invented
Missing pins stay missing: 5 stores await an exact coordinate and are not mapped. Mall, district and city centres are never substituted for a store pin.
8
Quarantined evidence records
Rejected coordinates and ambiguous identifiers are held in a developer audit register. They never enter management data, the map or any KPI.
13
Open evidence exceptions
Each HOLD, pending pin and duplicate candidate is recorded with its effect on routing and mapping — visible, not silently dropped.