Research
Research governed
The research record exists inside the governed dataset, and its source, lineage and status are known.
Complete
Governed data release
Loading approved release data
Spinneys Growth Intelligence 2030
What it takes · 8 of 9
The steps between screening a market and approving an investment, and where the approved evidence stands on each. It is a readiness workflow — research, evidence, demand, commercial feasibility, management approval — not a ranking and not a recommendation.
The pathway
Each stage shows what the current dataset supports for the project as a whole, and the governed record the status is read from.
Research
The research record exists inside the governed dataset, and its source, lineage and status are known.
Governed data release
Evidence
Target-specific evidence that needs a location has passed the approved geographic rules — exact identity and a defensible numeric pin, or a governed exclusion. Missing geometry is never invented.
Governed data release
Evidence
The approved competitive evidence framework has been applied: brand breadth, in-target, corridor and false-positive evidence, confidence, relevance, evidence quality and the competitive evidence signal. It describes competitor evidence only — never commercial attractiveness.
Governed data release
Demand
Management reviews the approved public or internal demand evidence for the market. Where no evidence exists the stage stays incomplete; no numeric threshold is applied.
Management review of released evidence
Commercial feasibility
Management-supplied commercial evidence: rent, CAPEX, store format, sales forecast, margin, household spend and occupancy where applicable, cannibalisation and operating assumptions. None of these exist in the approved release.
Management input
Commercial feasibility
Commercial, finance and expansion review of a specific site. A manual management process — never completed by this application.
Commercial, finance and expansion teams
Management approval
The management decision on a business case. Manual only — the application never assigns it.
Management
Management approval
Only a future, recorded management decision can place a site or market here. The approved release records none.
Management decision in a future approved release
Current project readiness
Read from the approved release, stage by stage. Nothing here is estimated.
Research governed
Research phase closed at v83; every figure is traceable to validated release v85-r1.
Geographic evidence ready
Geo input control is closed — current network + governed competitor evidence + exceptions. 8 Wave C1 rows remain on hold and stay off the map by rule.
Competitive screening complete
10 target markets screened for breadth, relevance and evidence quality. Rule: IN-TARGET ≠ market attractiveness.
Demand validation
Demand attractiveness is a data gap: 3 of 10 markets have demand evidence recorded, 4 macro context only, 3 require commercial input. Still required: population / households / income proxy / retail spend / growth.
Commercial inputs
Site economics is a data gap: rent / capex / store format / sales forecast / margin. Rule: No investment ranking without economics.
Site feasibility / business case
Next step recorded in the release: commercial feasibility study. It is a management process outside this application.
Management approval
Investment ranking: not yet (demand + economics absent). Management decision after data completion.
Approved expansion
2030 opening sequence: not yet (depends on investment ranking). SCREENING COMPLETE — INVESTMENT RANKING REQUIRES DEMAND / ECONOMIC INPUTS.
Target markets
All ten markets in Target_ID order. Each cell states which evidence exists for that stage. This is not a ranking: no market is ahead, and no row totals exist.
| Market | Research governed | Geographic evidence | Competitive screening | Demand evidence | Commercial inputs | Business case | Management approval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10th of Ramadan | Complete 11 governed rows | Complete 7 of 7 closed | Complete 7 in-target · Deep-dive ready | Available Recorded for review · no source URL | Management input required Rent, CAPEX, format economics, sales forecast | Manual process | Manual approval required |
| Taj City / Tajed | Complete 74 governed rows | Not available No in-target evidence to locate | Complete 0 in-target · Needs target-specific evidence | Partial Macro context only · no source URL | Management input required Project occupancy, household profile, rent, sales forecast | Manual process | Manual approval required |
| Sarai / D2N / Al Amal | Complete 15 governed rows | Not available No in-target evidence to locate | Complete 0 in-target · Needs target-specific evidence | Required No demand evidence in the release | Management input required Occupancy, households, retail spend, rent | Manual process | Manual approval required |
| New Zayed / Belle Vie / Sphinx | Complete 27 governed rows | Complete 1 of 2 closed · 1 excluded | Complete 2 in-target · Deep-dive ready | Partial Macro context only · no source URL | Management input required New Zayed occupancy, household profile, rent, sales forecast | Manual process | Manual approval required |
| Mivida / AUC / KOV | Complete 55 governed rows | Complete 4 of 5 closed · 1 excluded | Complete 5 in-target · Deep-dive ready | Partial Macro context only · no source URL | Management input required Catchment households, spend, rent, cannibalization, sales forecast | Manual process | Manual approval required |
| New Damietta | Complete 3 governed rows | Partial 2 of 3 closed · 1 on hold | Complete 3 in-target · Deep-dive ready | Available Recorded for review · no source URL | Management input required Income/spend, rent, format, sales forecast | Manual process | Manual approval required |
| Ismailia | Complete 19 governed rows | Partial 6 of 9 closed · 2 on hold | Complete 9 in-target · Deep-dive ready | Partial Macro context only · no source URL | Management input required City catchment, income/spend, rent, sales forecast | Manual process | Manual approval required |
| New Mansoura | Complete 27 governed rows | Not available No in-target evidence to locate | Complete 0 in-target · Needs target-specific evidence | Required No demand evidence in the release | Management input required Occupied households, completion/occupancy, spend, rent | Manual process | Manual approval required |
| Suez City | Complete 30 governed rows | Partial 9 of 14 closed · 5 on hold | Complete 14 in-target · Deep-dive ready | Available Recorded for review · no source URL | Management input required Catchment spend, rent, format economics, sales forecast | Manual process | Manual approval required |
| Badya / New October | Complete 37 governed rows | Not available No in-target evidence to locate | Complete 0 in-target · Needs target-specific evidence | Required No demand evidence in the release | Management input required Occupancy, households, retail spend, rent, sales forecast | Manual process | Manual approval required |
Stages 6 and 7 are manual management steps and read the same for every market. Stage 8 · Approved expansion: no market is in this stage. Only a future management decision, recorded in an approved data release, can place a site or market there.
Management input
None of these values exist in the approved release. They are not public facts and are never estimated by this application.
Demand attractiveness (data gap): Population / households / income proxy / retail spend / growth
Site economics (data gap): Rent / capex / store format / sales forecast / margin
2030 investment roadmap (conditionally ready): Demand + economics required for ranked opening sequence
21 distinct inputs are named across the markets and their demand records. They are listed exactly as the workbook records them.
Governance
Final investment approval is outside this application. Business case, management approval and approved expansion are manual management stages, and nothing in the analytical layer can complete them.
Competition + public population evidence can prioritize due diligence, but cannot by itself authorize a store opening. Final investment approval requires site economics and commercial demand inputs.
Release status: SCREENING COMPLETE — INVESTMENT RANKING REQUIRES DEMAND / ECONOMIC INPUTS (no fabricated market-attractiveness ranking).
Decision use: READY FOR DUE-DILIGENCE / MANAGEMENT SCREENING — Workbook can identify where to investigate; investment approval requires the commercial inputs above.
The demand evidence and its gaps are in Evidence & Demand; each market's evidence is in its market brief.